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Joe Biden Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Electoral College, Latest Economist Forecast Predicts

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a seemingly prohibitive chance of winning the presidency after gaining a majority of electoral college votes, according to the latest election forecast from The Economist.

a man wearing a suit and tie: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.

© Chip Somodevilla/Getty
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.

Biden is given a 91 percent chance of winning the electoral college in the forecast as of Monday, while President Donald Trump is given a 9 percent chance. The forecast also predicts that the former vice president is all but certain to win a majority of the popular vote, having a 99 percent chance of winning the lion’s share of the national vote.

Election Day 2020: Where Trump, Biden Stand In The Polls 30 Days Before Nov. 3



With 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, Biden is predicted to win an estimated 347 electoral votes, while 191 are estimated for Trump. The forecast is based on a predictive model that simulates 20,000 plausible election outcomes, with each simulation varying vote shares to account for possible polling errors.

Although the model puts the president at a distinct disadvantage, it does not completely write him off. A range of 116 to 312 electoral votes are predicted for Trump, while 226 to 422 votes are predicted for Biden. Scenarios where neither candidate reaches 270 votes were predicted in fewer than 1 percent of simulations.

The forecast looks far from favorable for Trump, but supporters of the president may be quick to point out that similar forecasts were made before his surprise 2016 victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Some 2016 forecasts suggested that Trump had almost no chance of winning, with the Princeton Election Consortium predicting that Clinton had a 99 percent chance of winning and The Huffington Post giving her a 98 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight, which presented a somewhat more favorable outlook for Trump and ultimately gave him a 28.4 percent chance of winning by Election Day 2016, is currently giving the president a 13 percent chance of winning against Biden, nearly identical to the 13.1 percent chance he was given against Clinton on October 12, 2016.

However, Biden is polling better than Clinton was at the same point in the last election. Biden was leading Trump an average of 10.4 percent nationally on Monday, while Clinton was ahead by 6.3 percent at the same point. Clinton’s lead shrunk to an average of 3.9 percent by Election Day, before she ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1 percent despite losing the electoral college.

State polling also looks more favorable for Biden when compared to Clinton. In Pennsylvania, which the forecast from The Economist deems most likely

Hatton completes career goal by winning BMW PGA Championship

VIRGINIA WATER, England (AP) — Tyrrell Hatton held off a final-round challenge by Victor Perez to win the BMW PGA Championship by four strokes on Sunday, giving the English player a first victory on home soil at a tournament that inspired him to become a professional.

Hatton shot 5-under 67 to finish on 19-under 269 overall, capping a week when he shot in the 60s every round around Wentworth’s storied West Course.

It is the biggest win of his career, even topping his victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in March that marked his breakthrough in the United States, where he has been playing for the past nine months either side of golf’s hiatus for the coronavirus pandemic.

Hatton used to attend this tournament — the elite event on the European Tour — as a child, and recalled this week the time he came to Wentworth as a 5-year-old with his father and was nearly struck by an errant tee shot from Vijay Singh.

“It’s unbelievable,” said Hatton, who acknowledged in a walkalong TV interview during the round that he was nervous. “This was a goal of mine, to win this tournament in my career.”

Hatton, who has sparked debate this week by wearing a hoodie, came into the final round with a three-stroke lead and was only really challenged by Perez, who moved into a share of the lead with Hatton after an eagle on the par-5 fourth hole.

Bogeys at Nos. 13 and 17 ended the challenge of the Frenchman, who didn’t pick up a shot in his final six holes and shot 68.

Hatton gave Perez a glimpse of an opportunity by bogeying No. 13 — his only dropped shot of the round — but bounced back by making birdie on Nos. 15 and 18 to ultimately ease to the win.

It is Hatton’s third victory at a Rolex Series event and he is set to move into the top 10 in the world for the first time.


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