The NCAA moved the 3-point line back from 20 feet, 9 inches to 22 feet, 1¾ inches last season, and across Division I, accuracy from beyond the arc fell from 34.4% in 2018-19 to 33.3% in 2019-20. One possibility for this coming season is D-I teams will record a similar conversion rate for a second straight year and, indeed, for several years to come.
That’s what happened the last time the line was moved back, prior to the 2008-09 season. (The 3-point line had been 19 feet, 9 inches.) It’s conceivable that the sport’s 3-point success rate has been, in effect, reset at a slightly lower level. What could change this season, however, is which players are faring poorly from beyond the arc, even as the overall bottom line stays more or less the same.
For a few years now, I’ve kept my eye on “bad” 3-point shooters who meet certain thresholds. Players who attempt more than 100 3-pointers in a season, shoot under 30% from beyond the arc and are either freshmen or sophomores on major conference teams qualify as players of interest in my real-world experiment.